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Brad Delong tries to detangle Niall Ferguson’s most recent blatherings. I’m in sleepy Rochester, Minnesota (under less than desirable circumstances, but celebratory nonetheless) and, like always, Ferguson gives me the chance to write something fun. On the bright side, Ferguson’s article is a rare example of pundits updating their priors. Only, in this case, it’s within the …

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Update: I just Tweeted: “Ok seriously “bets reveal beliefs” is a belief. And a pretty strong one too. I don’t believe you believe that. Reveal it. Now!” Sounds like the impossibility of proving you believe in bets is a pretty good argument against expecting people to bet to reveal their beliefs if in such a …

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But resource constraints and Confucianism ain’t one! [Not to say China is resource-rich, but that this isn’t its biggest drawback] Okay so there’s a kerfuffle about between Noah Smith and Daniel Altman about China’s economic future. They’re right (partially – China will beat Europe) to be bearish on its development, but their reasons are just wrong. …

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